Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Future knowledge is not accessible

It is possible to make certain judgments about the resource needs of future generations, however it is not as easy to make long term estimates as to what type of technological developments lie ahead for our society. Imagine 30 years ago the idea of a network of computers providing massive job opportunities might have seemed hairy. Now imagine what the Internet would look like to someone in the 19th century. Energy innovation has been shown to occur when there is a market demand for more efficient products and when funding comes from the government; even though I am thoroughly uncomfortable with the latter, I will admit some innovation gets done even if it is done under government funding and the resources are allocated inefficiently. I cannot even imagine a developed society like ours not being able to provide necessity goods. I know this is an assumption I am making about future generations, which could work against one of my earlier premises. All the same, the idea of making a “doomsday” judgment about societies so called inevitable collapse based what we can presently conceive technologically makes the same mistake by not taking into account the propensity for future societies to develop inconceivable alternatives when and if resources become more scarce.

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